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Caleb Gedemer

A Statistical Look at Greninja in Expanded — Defending the Game's Most "Inconsistent" Deck

Caleb Gedemer provides a statistical examination of Greninja BREAK in Expanded.

01/02/2018 by Caleb Gedemer

Greninja BREAK is one of the best Expanded format plays for Dallas, TX Regionals. Why? It’s more consistent than you think (trust me, I’ve got the numbers to prove it), and it has a great matchup spread against the most popular decks. It was the first deck I looked at after Memphis, TN Regionals while making the switch to our other format. The biggest two decks to beat, Night March and Zoroark-GX decks, both have a difficult time against the large HP of Greninja BREAK combined with the shutdown lock of Shadow Stitching. Many of my friends and teammates have tried to stifle my hype of this deck. I get it, too; Greninja BREAK is notorious for drawing dead sometimes.

I reached out to my friend and teammate, Rukan Shao, and asked for some help with some Greninja BREAK statistics. Rukan is very good with numbers and programming, and in a minute, he had built a simulator to get the numbers I was looking for. These numbers are the real deal, and while they don’t encompass everything to playing a deck, they give you a very solid sense numerically as to how often you will set up in optimal fashion with a Greninja BREAK deck.

I’m excited to share our results and talk about this deck’s matchups in the Expanded format. It’s been a long time since Greninja BREAK saw legitimate success in our more tumultuous format, so I’m hoping some of what I share today can break that dead spell. Love Greninja? Need a quick pick for an Expanded format tournament? Want to make the frogs great again? Keep on reading to get all there is to know and more about this infamous deck in the Expanded format. I hope you enjoy it!


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Caleb Gedemer

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